The early part of the season is usually trouble for Ryan Howard, he's posted a career line of 243/359/434 in April (counting 09) so it's good to see him sporting a 287/364/539 line through the first 29 games of play. At the same juncture in 08 he was hitting a Uker like 184/303/388. His K rate is down to 27.8%, which would be the lowest of his career if he can maintain it, and his BABIP is back in line with his 05-07 numbers. His HR/FB is way down, 20% compared to his career rate of 33.2% but his FB rate is exactly the same as last year so you can expect the ball to start leaving the yard with more frequency. This aspect of the equation looks promising and ZIPS is on board projecting Howard to hit 273/371/582 with 39 HR over the remainder of the season. That seems like a reasonable projection slightly better than 08 and right in line with his numbers from 07. There are a few warning signs and although early season sample size applies here, these numbers seem to fit Howard's overall trend line since 2006.
First off is his continued decline in walk rate. Howard currently sports a 10.2 BB% which is well below his career rate of 13%. In 06 and 07 Howard posted BB rates of 15.7% and 16.8% respectively, giving the appearance of a player with legitimate MVP level on base ability. These numbers were propped up by virtue of drawing a combined 72 IBB's during those two seasons. As Howard's weaknesses have become better scouted (just a guess), his IBB walks have dropped. Last year he drew 17, less than half the amount he drew in 07. This year he has drawn just a single free pass in 29 games. He is on pace to draw just 6 IBB for the year. His growing inability to hit lefties may be the primary culprit as instead of walking him in close/late situations, managers can call on a southpaw and believe they have an out. For his career Howard has hit lefties at a 231/312/462 rate, losing all on base skills while maintaining decent power. This year he has hit a mere 220/273/293 with 0HR and 14K in 44 PA. He's essentially being reduced to Tony Pena level against lefties. Failure to improve in this area is going to reduce Howard to platoon level, although we all know Manuel won't be bringing in Coste to pinch hit against the LOOGY's of the NL.
Another point of concern is Howard's BABIP as it relates to his LD%. Howard is currently sporting the worst LD rate of his career, 16.9% this year vs 22.9% for his career. He's putting more balls in play, however those balls are ground balls and should start turning into outs more frequently driving down his batting average. Part of the problem may be that Howard is swinging at more pitches than ever before. His overall swing % stands at 53% with his career rate currently 47.4%. He's currently swinging at almost 31% of pitches thrown out of the zone making contact on 45% of those swings. While that figure is increased his overall contact rate is only .5% higher than his career rate so he's not hitting pitches in the zone better. Outside of peak Vlad, most players make weak contact with balls out of the zone resulting in more outs than swinging at strikes.
The overall picture shows Howard hitting the same amount of fly balls, striking out and walking less while hitting more ground balls than are healthy for a monster power type. Given his second half track record (302/414/637 career) it wouldn't surprise me to see Howard back in the 45 HR range, although I would take the under on his ZIPS slash rates.
