Arguing with the Oracle*

"Fielder and Ramirez had good years, not great years, but they had lesser seasons in 2008 than in 2007..."  

That quote is taken directly from the young talent inventory in the 2009 Bill James Handbook and was written by James himself.  In this inventory James also lists Prince Fielder as the best young player in the league.  As you can tell by the title of the post, I'm not on board with that statement.  The idea that a young Ryan Howard is better than equally (or better) performing players at up the middle positions and much better players at third base but who may be one year older boggles my mind.  Not to mention ace starting pitching.  Would any GM draft Fielder ahead of David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes or Cole Hamles?  What about Grady Sizemore, Evan Longoria or even Fielders teammate Ryan Braun?  James defends his list by stating that he's not trying to create the perfect, end all top 25 of young talent, but rather to gather which teams have the most young talent and whether there is more young talent than normal.  But how can you do this successfully when you can't even properly evaluate the young talent playing right now?

James ranked Fielder and Ramirez 1-2 on his top 25 list along with stating that both players suffered a performance drop.  I'm going to contest both aspects of that argument.  Both players are the same age, yet one plays SS and the other 1B.  Any cursory understanding of the game validates that SS is the more important position.  For a direct comparison I'm going use two Bill James tools; runs created and win shares (even though I don't really like them).  I will also be using OPS+ and WARP1.  Fielders 2008 line runs 105 RC, 23 WS, 128 OPS+ and 5.9 Warp1.  For Ramirez it's 116 RC, 32 WS, 146 OPS+ and 10.3 Warp1.  Their raw slash lines read; Fielder 276/372/507 with 34 HR and 301/400/540 with 33 HR.  Ramirez wins the comparison hands down.  James never gives any defense or reasoning as to why he picks Fielder over Ramirez, but from where I'm sitting, all evidence points to Ramirez being the far superior player.  

My final disagreement is with the idea that Ramirez had a lesser 2008 than 2007.  In James defense Ramirez lost 31 points of BA, 22 points of slugging and 16 SB.  However his OBP increased by 14 points despite the drop in BA and his IsoP rose from .230 to .239.  Plus his 32 WS surpasses James unofficial MVP mark of 30, while his 10.3 Warp1 is an increase of almost 3 wins from 07 as his FRAA rose from -22 to -3.  Essentially his on-base abilities continued to increase, his power hitting up ticked in the slightest and he moved from one of the worst defensive SS's to an almost average one.  Ramirez had an MVP type season and was most likely one of the 5 best players in the NL.  To say that he had a lessor season makes it appear as if Bill James is drastically over-valuing raw BA, something he's been preaching against for decades.  

Bill James has done more to develop and promote an analytical approach to baseball than I could in 15 lifetimes, yet here it seems as thought he's starting from a list and forming arguments around it.  Hopefully this was just a result of James being rushed and not a sign of him reaching his decline phase.

*as labeled by the Wall Street Journal

Ugh....

Well, it looks like my argument with Bill James will have to wait a couple of days now that the Phils have gone and done something stupid, signing Raul Ibanez to a 3 year/$30 million contract.  This move is perplexing for several reasons; first Ibanez is 5 years older, second he cost us our first round draft pick, third he's no better than Burrell on defense, fourth he's no where near as good as Burrell when it comes to getting on base and finally he's left handed.  Oh, and in a saturated market the Phils sign maybe the worst of the numerous OF/DH types first without waiting to see what the market sets as value.  

The first thing everyone is going to say is that Pat can't play defense.  Well, neither can Ibanez.  Over the last two years John Dewans +/- has Burrell at -47 plays and Ibanez at -43.  Baseball prospectus FRAA has Burrell at -29 runs with Ibanez at -16.  So Ibanez has been slightly better over the last two years, meaning we've replaced the worst LF with the third worst LF.  Not an improvement.   Next Phils fans will bring up Ibanez's batting average, which is definitely better than Burrells.  However his OBP has been significantly lower anyway.  Burrell the last 4 years; 389/388/400/367.  Ibanez; 355/353/351/358.   So now our lineup is making outs at a higher rate.  The LF problem comes into play in a big way here as every NL East team will just throw out those LOOGY to deal with Utley/Howard/Ibanez.   

The problems with this deal are compounded by the earlier decision not to offer Burrell arbitration.  So now instead of either having Burrell's last tail end prime year or netting two draft picks, we've signed a decline phase player who cost us our own pick.  The net transaction here is probably $6 million saved this year, an extra $14 on the books for the next two years and a net loss of three draft picks for a pretty good scouting/development team.  Oh and we're not any better than last year, maybe a bit worse.  Look Ibanez will probably have a decent season next year and if we don't defend the division title this move will probably not be the sole reason, but it is a short sighted move that will hamper this teams success no later than 2010.  Oh and I'm not the only one saying this, check out this site, this one, how  bout this one or you could just head over ussmariner.com and see what Mariners fans and Dave Cameron think.  

Honestly at this point I'm too tired to go into any of my other problems with Ibanez, but this signing coupled with reports that the Phils will give 46 year old Jaime Moyer a 2 year deal gives me a great deal of distrust in the early days of the Ruben Amaro Jr. reign.  

Quick Hits on a busy couple of days...

So I haven't been able to respond to the flurry of activity the past couple of days as previous engagements have kept me occupied after works hours.  However I will now attempt a couple of quick thoughts on some of the activity on the past 48 hours.

The Yankees apparently have Sabathia all but in uniform, at record price of course.  This was expected from the outset and fills the Yanks most glaring need, as Sabathia will provide both quantity and quality and help eliminate those Sidney Ponson/Darrell Rasner sightings.  As for the contract itself, it's being reported as 7 years/$160 million although there is apparently a player option after the third year.  This seems like a bad idea for the club as these type of options almost always work against them, but then again maybe that's what was needed to lure Sabathia to New York as he did seem hesitant to leave the West Coast/small market type team.  I'm not going to go any further into the pros/cons and possibility of injury based on Sabathia's size as they've been discussed elsewhere and in better depth than I can convey.   Also late yesterday/today came word that the Yanks are also close to acquiring Mike Cameron for either Melky or a Melky based package.  Cameron is a close friend of Sabathia, a decent CF (which would make him the Yanks best defensive player) and an obvious offensive upgrade over the position last year.  The Yanks can easily afford both his salary and losing the 4th OF in Cabrera.  These two moves show the Yankees once again using their financial resources to get what they want.  I wonder though if in the end they'll wish they had signed Teixera instead as he's a much sounder investment and I doubt even the Yankees can sign CC and Tex in the same off season.

Not to be completely outdone, the Mets signed K-Rod to a team friendly deal and nabbed JJ Putz in a three team, 12 player NBA style mega-deal with the Indians and Mariners filling in the various other loose parts.  In 2 days the Mets have created potentially the best back end pen in the NL.  Putz has injury questions from last year and K-Rod has diminishing stuff issues, but both are clearly upgrades over an entire bullpen of situational guys they had last year.  The Mets lose Heilman, Carp and a young upside arm whose name escapes me at the moment(I'm doing this post quick and don't have all relevant links). For what they gave up their return is great.  If healthy Putz will be better than K-Rod while pitching more high leverage innings and helping the Mets begin to play 7 inning games.  The Mariners get increased defense in Gutierrez and Endy Chavez, which will be a real asset given their vast outfield space.  They also acquire the upside arm in question.  The Indians jettison a 4th OF while obtaining a legit 2B prospect from the Mariners.  This should let them slide Asdrubel Cabrera and Johnny Peralta over to SS/3B respectively while improving offensively at 2B.  Again the prospects name escapes me.

The trade that I like the best though has to be the Rays-Tigers trade as it shows once again the ability of a good front office to leverage a player at peak value while getting a good return that fills a team need while fitting into the organizational philosophy perfectly.  The Detroit Tigers needed depth at pitching and rightly identified the Rays as a team with a potential surplus.  The problem is they went after the wrong guy.  Domborski described Edwin Jackson as having a "breakout season", something which the numbers just don't support.  Jackson's improvements can be almost completely tied to the Rays increased defense, and while Adam Everett, Brandon Inge and Placido Polanco make up a good defensive IF, the OF corners and 1B will be trouble spots.  To get Jackson the Tigers gave up Matt Joyce, a decent prospect with average to slightly above average power and who plays a good RF.  Joyce is two years further from arbitration than Jackson and a better bet to contribute to a winning club in meaningful way.  The Tigers weird obsession with playing Guillen in LF, getting a new SS while keeping Sheffield allowed the Rays to make this move.  It seems like the best decision would have been to keep Guillen at short while platooning Joyce and Thames with Ordonez playing left on days Joyce was in the lineup to maximize the clubs offensive and defensive assets.  Now they've gotten a pitcher whom, they'll slot in a the number 3 guy and get 5/6 production out of.  Jackson best future role is in a relief spot, possibly super long relief as he does have good stuff and stamina.  (I know I have not used any stats but if someone is reading and wants to challenge me please do) Or, if they were going to trade Joyce, they should have gone after Sonnenstine, who seems a better bet to at least be a slightly above average innings eater (For some reason I'm obsessed with a Cory Hart for Sonnenstine deal, don't ask).  The Rays get a strong side platoon player and open up a spot for Price in the rotation. 

There were a handful of other trades, signings and of course the rule 5 draft, but this is not www.mlbtraderumors.com and I'm not Buster Olney or Jon Heyman so I'm not going to comment on all of them other than to say giving Casey Blake a three year deal with an option for a fourth is probably not the best idea.  Anyway join me next time when I discuss my disagreement with Bill James young player index in the 2009 handbook.  

A tip of the cap

Greg Maddox is set to retire on Monday, ending the career of quite possibly the best pitcher I have ever seen.  I'm not going to take the time to debate Maddox vs Clemens, or Maddox's longevity vs. Pedro's peak.  I just want to take a few moments to voice my respect and appreciation for being able to witness his talents.  He won 4 CY young awards and finished in the top 5 another 5 times while recording three top 5 MVP finishes.  From 1992-2002 his ERA+ lines read as follows; 166, 171, 271, 262, 162, 189, 187, 125, 153, 146 and 159.  That run of dominance was preceded by 4 years as an above average performer and followed by 6 years as a mostly league average pitcher who never got hurt.  Maddox's career includes an all-time peak, an extended period of dominance and an additional 10 years of average to above average performance. Among his other accomplishments were leading his league in GS seven times, IP five times, CG three times, ShO five times and ERA 4 times.  He threw at least 194 innings his each of his last 21 seasons, surpassing 200 18 times.   He is third all-time in wins amongst pitchers whose career began after 1900 and his career ERA+ stands at 132.  What I'll remember the most is just how useless he made even the best hitters look while in his prime years.  In 1994 and 1995 he posted seasons straight out of the 60's and had a nearly 9:1 K:BB ratio in 95.  I could go on and on like this but it's probably easier for you to just head over to www.baseball-reference.com or just read one the many, better articles that are sure to spring up in the next few days.  I just felt the need to say my piece about Maddox's extraordinary career.  

No arbitration for Burrell

The refusal to offer arbitration to Pat Burrell is the clearest sign we've gotten from the Phils new management as to what to expect from them as far as future payroll goes.  Next years payroll will be increase from this year (mostly due to arb raises to Howard/Hamels and a decent pay bump for Utley) but it is clear that the Phils have no intention of crossing the $120 million mark for payroll.  Given the uncertain FA market it wouldn't be completely insane to see a scenario where Burrell does not get a multi-year offer to his liking and accepts arbitration and is awarded a $15 million plus deal for next year.  That apparently is something that ownership/management is not willing to let happen.  It also seems to indicate that they will not be major players on the FA market.  It was already assumed that Sabathia/Ramirez were out of the question, but now we are presented with evidence that seems to indicate they will not be going after Lowe or Burnett. 

 Amaro continues to state that improving the teams pitching is their number one goal. So what sensible moves are left if Lowe and Burnett are not realistic targets?  Signing either Randy Johnson or Brad Penny to a one year deal would make a great deal of sense as either one should be better than Blanton/Kendrick/Happ/et all and neither requires draft pick compensation.  Add in a Juan Cruz or Kerry Wood addition to the bullpen and you're looking at improved pitching depth with less cost in dollars/years than signing any of the big ticket guys.   Of course it won't be that simple, Wood is probably  looking for a closers job and there has been little talk to indicate serious interest in Penny or Johnson from the Phils.  Still with little to report on the once assumed slam dunk re-signing of Moyer, it's clear that the Phils are aware they need SP help and I expect them to make a move or two to address that.  Whether they do something intelligent like pulling off  a trade like the one the Braves apparently have, making a decent FA signing or whether they do something stupid like giving Jon Garland a multi year deal remains to be seen.  The best that can be hoped for is that Amaro has learned from the Freddy Garcia/Adam Eaton stupidities of the past and can properly evaluate risk/reward for FA while at the same time being creative in trades and roster management.  It's your turn Ruben, don't let us down.