Every since blasting 7 home runs in 10 games upon being called up in June 06, Kemp has been on the radar as a prospect to watch. Always one to watch due to a rare combination of speed, size and power Kemp has been considered more of an athlete than a ballplayer with his detractors pointing to both his plate discipline and well know base running blunders as both an example if his immaturity and proof that he was worth more as trade bait than as a prospect. For awhile it seemed as though the Dodgers agreed with them. In 2007 Kemp opened the season on the big league squad only to be sent down April 10th before being called back up on June 8th to fill in a role as platoon/4th OF role. He would total 311 plate appearances that year putting up a combined 342/373/521 line. Despite hitting nearly 350, much of his press was bad as the team was torn in a well publicized dispute between veterans like Jeff Kent and the younger players headed most notably by Russell Martin. Although his 07 season was a success, there were two warning signs that he might not be star ready. His walk rate for the season was 5.2% with a 34.4 K %. Striking out 34% of the time will not let you hit 340. Still, the Dodgers resisted the urge to package Kemp in either a Santana or Cabrera trade and he wound up back with the team for 08.
2008 saw Matt Kemp take some baby steps towards fulfilling some of the Dave Winfield comps as he cut his K rate down to a more manageable 22.6% while upping his walk rate a bit to 7.1% while racking up a 290/340/459 line in 657 plate appearances. He hit only 18 home runs but did add 35 steals while being caught 11 times. Overall it was a small baby step foreword but given the ability to play a full season at the major league level, Kemp showed some of the promise that made him such a highly regarded prospect. Heading into the 09 season he was considered a breakout candidate and his performance will be one of the main factors in the Dodgers ultimate success.
So far this year Kemp has compiled a 316/398/579 line with 3 home runs and 5 steals in six attempts. His BABIP of 396 does not seem completely sustainable as he is hitting significantly less line drives than before with a subsequent spike in fly ball rate. He is however doing one thing much better; drawing walks. So far this year Kemp's walk rate has jumped to 11.6% with walks in his last 4 straight contests. Small sample size caveat applies here though, the season is only 21 games old and Kemp has just 88 plate appearances or just 1/8 of his season total. On the other hand, Kemp is just 24 years old and recently passed the 324 game plateau 2 days ago. So while he has seen action at the major league level in each of the past 4 seasons, he only has two years worth of big league game time. Prospects generally don't come up fully developed and when they are shuffled back and fourth and benched in favor of Juan Pierre, sometimes it takes a little longer to develop. If Matt Kemp has truly developed his on base skills to the point he's shown thus far this year, then he should soon be one of the better OF in the National League.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Monday, April 27, 2009
Fowler Rising
Lost in the shuffle during the pre-season rookie of the year articles and Jordan Schafer homer happy 1st week, Colorado's Dexter Fowler is off to quite the start this year. Ranked as the 17th best prospect in baseball by Jim Callis of Baseball America heading into 09, Fowler had a strong spring training making the team as the 4th OF. With a starting OF consisting of only one full time regular (Brad Hawpe), it seemed as though the plan was to watch Fowlers playing time and pick his matchups while giving him 2-3 starts per week so as not to expose him too much. Fowler has not co-operated. Taking advantage of the playing time, Fowler is off to a great start hitting 286/364/490 with a pair of home runs and 4 steals in 56 plate appearances; earning a near everyday job with starts in 8 of the Rockies last 10 games entering play tonight. These numbers appear legit as he currently sports a BABIP of 300, right around league average, and a LD rate of 24.4%.
Fowler is a prototypical 5 tool talent with one major difference, he actually seems to know how to play baseball thus setting himself apart from the Greg Golson's of the world. Fowler has not had a normal development as he was instructed to switch hit upon being drafted and has lost large chunks of playing time to injury in both 2006 and 2007. He spent almost all of 08 at AA compiling slash rates of 335/431/515 with a walk rate of 13.4%. With an IsoP of just under 200 and a wOBA of431 at AA Fowler earned a cup of coffee with the parent club in 08. While he did not perform well, posting a 154/185/154 line with no walks and 5 strikeouts in 27 plate appearances, it was apparent that Fowler had legitimized his prospect status in 08 and would soon be patrolling spacious Coors Field.
In 07 when the Rockies went to the World Series one of the main foundations of their success was team defense, and this is another area where Fowler is currently contributing. Fowler gets rave reviews for his defense, with Baseball Prospectus stating that he has "Gold Glove-level talent in center field." Baseball America notes that he has a plus arm for center and gets good reads on balls in play which combined with his speed makes him a potential plus defender at the major league level.
Most people expected Fowler to start the year at AAA with the Rockies calling him up around th all-start break due to either trade, injury or the sheer suckiness of Scott Podsednik. However, the combination of Fowlers great spring and lack of good OF options past Hawp and Spilborghs led the Rockies to break camp with Fowler and Seth Smith in a platoon/time share and Fowlers perfomance in the opportunity given him has garnered more playing time for this potential roookie of the year. Dexter Fowler has been a top prospect for a couple of years now and looks on his way to producing a strong rookie season that might put him at the head of the coming CF vanguard. Don't be too surprised if he finishes somewhere in the neighborhood of 280/350/460 with 12-15 home runs and 30 SB's as he claims ROY honors.
**UPDATE**
So far in tonights game Fowler has gone 2-2 with a pair of walks and FIVE stolen bases. This guy is good.
Fowler is a prototypical 5 tool talent with one major difference, he actually seems to know how to play baseball thus setting himself apart from the Greg Golson's of the world. Fowler has not had a normal development as he was instructed to switch hit upon being drafted and has lost large chunks of playing time to injury in both 2006 and 2007. He spent almost all of 08 at AA compiling slash rates of 335/431/515 with a walk rate of 13.4%. With an IsoP of just under 200 and a wOBA of431 at AA Fowler earned a cup of coffee with the parent club in 08. While he did not perform well, posting a 154/185/154 line with no walks and 5 strikeouts in 27 plate appearances, it was apparent that Fowler had legitimized his prospect status in 08 and would soon be patrolling spacious Coors Field.
In 07 when the Rockies went to the World Series one of the main foundations of their success was team defense, and this is another area where Fowler is currently contributing. Fowler gets rave reviews for his defense, with Baseball Prospectus stating that he has "Gold Glove-level talent in center field." Baseball America notes that he has a plus arm for center and gets good reads on balls in play which combined with his speed makes him a potential plus defender at the major league level.
Most people expected Fowler to start the year at AAA with the Rockies calling him up around th all-start break due to either trade, injury or the sheer suckiness of Scott Podsednik. However, the combination of Fowlers great spring and lack of good OF options past Hawp and Spilborghs led the Rockies to break camp with Fowler and Seth Smith in a platoon/time share and Fowlers perfomance in the opportunity given him has garnered more playing time for this potential roookie of the year. Dexter Fowler has been a top prospect for a couple of years now and looks on his way to producing a strong rookie season that might put him at the head of the coming CF vanguard. Don't be too surprised if he finishes somewhere in the neighborhood of 280/350/460 with 12-15 home runs and 30 SB's as he claims ROY honors.
**UPDATE**
So far in tonights game Fowler has gone 2-2 with a pair of walks and FIVE stolen bases. This guy is good.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Is it Wood's time?
After placing pitcher Kevin Jepsen on the 15 day DL, the Angels have called up longtime super prospect Brandon Wood. Wood has seen major league action in each of the past 2 seasons with little success, but long has be considered a future power hitting SS.
Wood, 24, was ranked the #1 prospect in the Angels system from 06-08 by Baseball America and may have been this year as well if he didn't lose prospect eligibility last year by picking up 157 plate appearances at the major league level. Wood of course had one of the great minor league seasons of all time for a shortstop in 2005 blasting 43 homers to go along with 51 doubles and 4 triples, totaling 98 extra base hits while putting up a 321/383/672 line. Since then his star has faded a bit as he has failed to put up the same type of video game numbers in the minors and has compiled just a 191/212/317 line in 190 plate appearances at the big league level. He's off to a great start at AAA this year hitting 346/433/923 with 4 homers through seven games. So what should we expect from him this time out?
Despite the overall suckiness of his major league line there are two main reasons for hope. The first is sample size, 190 plate appearances spread across two seasons is not a convincing data set. The second is that while he did not produce with the bat at the majors last year, there was improvement from 07. Although his IsoP stayed almost exactly the same, his OBP rose 72 points and his K rate dropped from 36.4% to 28.7%. Add this to the fact that he has maintained a walk rate of just north of 10% in the minors and it starts to look like his talent might be peeking through just the tiniest bit. Although the K rate is still high, it does fall within his 26.3% K rate at AAA last season. Additionally, he was able to raise his LD% from 9.5 to 14% while reducing his groundball rate. More line drives means more extra base hits and more patience equals swinging at better pitches. Wood's overall numbers at AAA were significantly improved over 07 as well as he gained 135 points of OPS and 75 points of IsoP.
The overall picture of Wood is one of improvement from 07-08, both at the minor and major league level suggesting he's as ready as he's going to get. At this point he needs to play every day in the majors to prove whether he can make the jump. Vlad's DL trip will open up an OF/DH spot and the Angels would be wise to use this time to give Wood a legit chance at earning a full time spot on their roster. Maicer Izturis and Erik Aybar are nice little players, but Wood has the very real chance of becoming a 35 homer monster with solid on base skills. For an Angels team lacking offense even with a healthy Vlad, this should be a no brainer but we have seen teams do stranger things than favor the light hitting scrappy player over the strikeout prone slugger. Here's hoping he gets his shot.
***UPDATE 4/27/09***
It appears as though Mike Sciossa continues to hate on Brandon Wood as he's gotten just one start and 5 total plate appearances since being called up. He's gone 1-5 and is rapidly losing all trade values as the Angels seem to be practically screaming "WE DON'T BELIEVE IN YOU!". I mean at this point they may as well trade him for Russ Ohlendorf or Shawn Hill.
It might be time to start up a free Brandon Wood website.
Wood, 24, was ranked the #1 prospect in the Angels system from 06-08 by Baseball America and may have been this year as well if he didn't lose prospect eligibility last year by picking up 157 plate appearances at the major league level. Wood of course had one of the great minor league seasons of all time for a shortstop in 2005 blasting 43 homers to go along with 51 doubles and 4 triples, totaling 98 extra base hits while putting up a 321/383/672 line. Since then his star has faded a bit as he has failed to put up the same type of video game numbers in the minors and has compiled just a 191/212/317 line in 190 plate appearances at the big league level. He's off to a great start at AAA this year hitting 346/433/923 with 4 homers through seven games. So what should we expect from him this time out?
Despite the overall suckiness of his major league line there are two main reasons for hope. The first is sample size, 190 plate appearances spread across two seasons is not a convincing data set. The second is that while he did not produce with the bat at the majors last year, there was improvement from 07. Although his IsoP stayed almost exactly the same, his OBP rose 72 points and his K rate dropped from 36.4% to 28.7%. Add this to the fact that he has maintained a walk rate of just north of 10% in the minors and it starts to look like his talent might be peeking through just the tiniest bit. Although the K rate is still high, it does fall within his 26.3% K rate at AAA last season. Additionally, he was able to raise his LD% from 9.5 to 14% while reducing his groundball rate. More line drives means more extra base hits and more patience equals swinging at better pitches. Wood's overall numbers at AAA were significantly improved over 07 as well as he gained 135 points of OPS and 75 points of IsoP.
The overall picture of Wood is one of improvement from 07-08, both at the minor and major league level suggesting he's as ready as he's going to get. At this point he needs to play every day in the majors to prove whether he can make the jump. Vlad's DL trip will open up an OF/DH spot and the Angels would be wise to use this time to give Wood a legit chance at earning a full time spot on their roster. Maicer Izturis and Erik Aybar are nice little players, but Wood has the very real chance of becoming a 35 homer monster with solid on base skills. For an Angels team lacking offense even with a healthy Vlad, this should be a no brainer but we have seen teams do stranger things than favor the light hitting scrappy player over the strikeout prone slugger. Here's hoping he gets his shot.
***UPDATE 4/27/09***
It appears as though Mike Sciossa continues to hate on Brandon Wood as he's gotten just one start and 5 total plate appearances since being called up. He's gone 1-5 and is rapidly losing all trade values as the Angels seem to be practically screaming "WE DON'T BELIEVE IN YOU!". I mean at this point they may as well trade him for Russ Ohlendorf or Shawn Hill.
It might be time to start up a free Brandon Wood website.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Unfinished Business
Just wanted to jot down a few things I still don't understand about this off season as I spend a Sunday afternoon watching random games and thinking Rob Dibble needs a muzzle.
1) How did the Cardinals not sign Orlando Hudson when his price continued to drop? I know Hudson made sense for a great deal of teams, however St. Louis seems like a perfect fit. The Mets owe Castillo $18 mil over the next 3 years, the Indians apparently refuse to move Asdrubal to short and he alone wouldn't make the Padres contenders. St. Louis however doesn't have a 2B, they have a pitch to contact staff and the Cubs are more vulnerable then people seem to realize. Adding a legit top 10 2B and another .350 plus OBP in front of Pujols could easily gain the Cards another 3-4 wins. While this wouldn't have closed the gap completely, it would give them a much better chance should Bradley/Harden/Zambrano get hurt/under perform thus giving the NL central an opening.
2) How the Mets didn't go out and sign another lefty relief pitcher the day after the Phils signed Ibanez. When the team that has won the division two years in a row by a grand total of 4 games gives you such a blatant tactical advantage you must grab a hold of it. Signing any one of Trevor Miller, Will Ohman or Joe Beimel would have done the trick. For $2-4 million the Mets could have guranteed that Ryan Howard would never face a righty late in a ballgame against them and considering he's hit a combined 241/329/498 vs lefties from 06-08, that would be a great strategic advantage. By comparison he's hit 299/416/653 against righties over the same span so throwing Putz against him might not work out too well. Combined with their failure to add a corner OF bat to the Tatis/Murphy/Church rotation when at least 6 better options existed shows just how the Phils have been able to run them down two years in a row despite the Mets having a better core in Wright/Reyes/Beltran and Santana. Of course the addition of Sheffield may help alleviate the lack of OF offense, but I remain unconvinced.
3) The entire Cubs off season. Yes they are still the best team in their division, yes they have more lineup balance and yes they have the best NL rotation on paper but I still feel they are weaker than last year. First, out of all the OF options they chose the guy who has never played more than 141 games in a season and has played in less than 100 3 of the last 4 years. He only played 20 games in the field last year and has only topped 500 AB's once in his career. Combine him with Rich Harden and you now have major injury risk on your team. Secondly assuming Fukudome and Fontenot will be able fill 2B/CF is not the greatest idea, especially after trading away the best super utility player in the game for almost no return and sending Ronny Cedano away to Seattle thus robbing them of the depth they had at MI/RF last year. Thirdly trading Jose Ceda away for Kevin Gregg, the definition of league average Todd Jones type closer is non-sensical. Having Marmol as a muli-inning closer would expand the advantage gained by having one of the 5 best relief arms in the league. Instead the Cubs opted to follow the mass published managers manual. The Cubs are still the best team in their division and possibly the league, I just feel as though they've left themselves more vulnerable to injury or underperformance than last year.
4) The Reds refusing to learn from their past mistake and signing Willy Taveras. After the performances last year from Votto, Bruce, Cueto and Volquez many people see the Reds as the major sleeper team in the NL this year. However, with the OBP sinkholes they will have from Taveras, Phillips, Hernandez, whoever their SS is and the P spot, not to mention the very real possibility of Jay Bruce not becoming a superstar this year, you have a team that is going to struggle to score runs. Taveras has speed to burn and is above average in CF defensively, however putting him at the top of this lineup is just going to exacerbate their problems in getting people on base and runs across the plate. Signing Jim Edmonds to platoon with Jerry Hairston to cover CF or moving Bruce to center and signing any of the corner OF bats on the market this year would have greatly increased this teams chances of winning. Nick Swisher could have been had at relative little cost in terms of players and would have fit perfectly on this team as a switch hitting on base machine that can play a passable corner OF. Instead they have the RH version of Corey Patterson and come June will probably be wondering when Drew Stubbs will be ready.
The above moves and non moves have left me a bit confused and (I believe) the mentioned teams in a weaker position to contend. Oh and Robb Dibble's consistent use of "us" and "we" while referring to a team that didn't exist when he played is somehow hilarious and not infuriating. Until next time.
1) How did the Cardinals not sign Orlando Hudson when his price continued to drop? I know Hudson made sense for a great deal of teams, however St. Louis seems like a perfect fit. The Mets owe Castillo $18 mil over the next 3 years, the Indians apparently refuse to move Asdrubal to short and he alone wouldn't make the Padres contenders. St. Louis however doesn't have a 2B, they have a pitch to contact staff and the Cubs are more vulnerable then people seem to realize. Adding a legit top 10 2B and another .350 plus OBP in front of Pujols could easily gain the Cards another 3-4 wins. While this wouldn't have closed the gap completely, it would give them a much better chance should Bradley/Harden/Zambrano get hurt/under perform thus giving the NL central an opening.
2) How the Mets didn't go out and sign another lefty relief pitcher the day after the Phils signed Ibanez. When the team that has won the division two years in a row by a grand total of 4 games gives you such a blatant tactical advantage you must grab a hold of it. Signing any one of Trevor Miller, Will Ohman or Joe Beimel would have done the trick. For $2-4 million the Mets could have guranteed that Ryan Howard would never face a righty late in a ballgame against them and considering he's hit a combined 241/329/498 vs lefties from 06-08, that would be a great strategic advantage. By comparison he's hit 299/416/653 against righties over the same span so throwing Putz against him might not work out too well. Combined with their failure to add a corner OF bat to the Tatis/Murphy/Church rotation when at least 6 better options existed shows just how the Phils have been able to run them down two years in a row despite the Mets having a better core in Wright/Reyes/Beltran and Santana. Of course the addition of Sheffield may help alleviate the lack of OF offense, but I remain unconvinced.
3) The entire Cubs off season. Yes they are still the best team in their division, yes they have more lineup balance and yes they have the best NL rotation on paper but I still feel they are weaker than last year. First, out of all the OF options they chose the guy who has never played more than 141 games in a season and has played in less than 100 3 of the last 4 years. He only played 20 games in the field last year and has only topped 500 AB's once in his career. Combine him with Rich Harden and you now have major injury risk on your team. Secondly assuming Fukudome and Fontenot will be able fill 2B/CF is not the greatest idea, especially after trading away the best super utility player in the game for almost no return and sending Ronny Cedano away to Seattle thus robbing them of the depth they had at MI/RF last year. Thirdly trading Jose Ceda away for Kevin Gregg, the definition of league average Todd Jones type closer is non-sensical. Having Marmol as a muli-inning closer would expand the advantage gained by having one of the 5 best relief arms in the league. Instead the Cubs opted to follow the mass published managers manual. The Cubs are still the best team in their division and possibly the league, I just feel as though they've left themselves more vulnerable to injury or underperformance than last year.
4) The Reds refusing to learn from their past mistake and signing Willy Taveras. After the performances last year from Votto, Bruce, Cueto and Volquez many people see the Reds as the major sleeper team in the NL this year. However, with the OBP sinkholes they will have from Taveras, Phillips, Hernandez, whoever their SS is and the P spot, not to mention the very real possibility of Jay Bruce not becoming a superstar this year, you have a team that is going to struggle to score runs. Taveras has speed to burn and is above average in CF defensively, however putting him at the top of this lineup is just going to exacerbate their problems in getting people on base and runs across the plate. Signing Jim Edmonds to platoon with Jerry Hairston to cover CF or moving Bruce to center and signing any of the corner OF bats on the market this year would have greatly increased this teams chances of winning. Nick Swisher could have been had at relative little cost in terms of players and would have fit perfectly on this team as a switch hitting on base machine that can play a passable corner OF. Instead they have the RH version of Corey Patterson and come June will probably be wondering when Drew Stubbs will be ready.
The above moves and non moves have left me a bit confused and (I believe) the mentioned teams in a weaker position to contend. Oh and Robb Dibble's consistent use of "us" and "we" while referring to a team that didn't exist when he played is somehow hilarious and not infuriating. Until next time.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Pre-season thoughts and week one impressions
I know, I know. This is a very late post. The season has started for blogs sake. Well you plan a wedding, have the thing, take a honeymoon and before you know it's been two months since you wrote anything and hey, why start back up? Well, I want to that's why. To start I'm going to throw out a couple of general feelings I have as the off season ended. I'll keep it short and sweet since teams are already on their second series (catching Red Sox-Angels as I type). You know what, it's not even worth it so I'm going to write about what's on my mind.
The Phils are in trouble. I already covered my feelings on the upcoming season a bit earlier, but it now appears as if one of the biggest possible problems is reality-Cole Hamels is hurt. Not only did he have his first start pushed back 5 days, not only did he get rocked, but he was only hitting mid 80's with his fastball. I will be surprised if Hamels is not on the DL by the end of the month, and Hamels being hurt, bad or both will kill this teams chances of making the playoffs. Combine Hamels injury with the almost certain downtick in bullpen performance and Ryan Howards continued decline and you're looking at an 85 win team. Don't get me wrong, there will be days when they put 12 runs across and Utley/Howard/Ibanez can kill RH starters, but I still feel as though this teams flaws will be more exposed than last year. Howard can't hit lefties, Werth can't hit righties, Ruiz can't hit anything. Moyer has had one above average season in the last 5, Chad Durbin had one of the best relief seasons in the NL last year and still has an ERA+ under 100. Point being is that management has created a "live off our success" not a "build on our success" team. All in all this team has a strong smell of "2008 Rockies" to me. Not a good thing.
Everyone points to the Mets as the main competition for the NL East crown but the Braves should not be written off. The addition of Lowe and Vazquez to the rotation greatly increased their ability to contend. The Braves are strong at MI (not as strong as the Phils), have the best catcher in the NL, a strong rookie of the year candidate in CF, Garret Anderson should increase their LF production and RF can't be worse than last year. Oh, and Chipper Jones is having the best late career surge this side of Barry Bonds. Now before I give them the crown it should be pointed out that almost every member of the bullpen has injury issues and getting Jones to 145 games might take a miracle. Still it's not hard to see the Braves winning 88 games and sneaking into the playoffs, or at least ahead of the Phils and into 2nd. Who knows, maybe the Braves will be the ones running down a collapsing Mets team?
The Phils are in trouble. I already covered my feelings on the upcoming season a bit earlier, but it now appears as if one of the biggest possible problems is reality-Cole Hamels is hurt. Not only did he have his first start pushed back 5 days, not only did he get rocked, but he was only hitting mid 80's with his fastball. I will be surprised if Hamels is not on the DL by the end of the month, and Hamels being hurt, bad or both will kill this teams chances of making the playoffs. Combine Hamels injury with the almost certain downtick in bullpen performance and Ryan Howards continued decline and you're looking at an 85 win team. Don't get me wrong, there will be days when they put 12 runs across and Utley/Howard/Ibanez can kill RH starters, but I still feel as though this teams flaws will be more exposed than last year. Howard can't hit lefties, Werth can't hit righties, Ruiz can't hit anything. Moyer has had one above average season in the last 5, Chad Durbin had one of the best relief seasons in the NL last year and still has an ERA+ under 100. Point being is that management has created a "live off our success" not a "build on our success" team. All in all this team has a strong smell of "2008 Rockies" to me. Not a good thing.
Everyone points to the Mets as the main competition for the NL East crown but the Braves should not be written off. The addition of Lowe and Vazquez to the rotation greatly increased their ability to contend. The Braves are strong at MI (not as strong as the Phils), have the best catcher in the NL, a strong rookie of the year candidate in CF, Garret Anderson should increase their LF production and RF can't be worse than last year. Oh, and Chipper Jones is having the best late career surge this side of Barry Bonds. Now before I give them the crown it should be pointed out that almost every member of the bullpen has injury issues and getting Jones to 145 games might take a miracle. Still it's not hard to see the Braves winning 88 games and sneaking into the playoffs, or at least ahead of the Phils and into 2nd. Who knows, maybe the Braves will be the ones running down a collapsing Mets team?
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