Small sample size or genuine improvement?

Every since blasting 7 home runs in 10 games upon being called up in June 06, Kemp has been on the radar as a prospect to watch. Always one to watch due to a rare combination of speed, size and power Kemp has been considered more of an athlete than a ballplayer with his detractors pointing to both his plate discipline and well know base running blunders as both an example if his immaturity and proof that he was worth more as trade bait than as a prospect. For awhile it seemed as though the Dodgers agreed with them. In 2007 Kemp opened the season on the big league squad only to be sent down April 10th before being called back up on June 8th to fill in a role as platoon/4th OF role. He would total 311 plate appearances that year putting up a combined 342/373/521 line. Despite hitting nearly 350, much of his press was bad as the team was torn in a well publicized dispute between veterans like Jeff Kent and the younger players headed most notably by Russell Martin. Although his 07 season was a success, there were two warning signs that he might not be star ready. His walk rate for the season was 5.2% with a 34.4 K %. Striking out 34% of the time will not let you hit 340. Still, the Dodgers resisted the urge to package Kemp in either a Santana or Cabrera trade and he wound up back with the team for 08.

2008 saw Matt Kemp take some baby steps towards fulfilling some of the Dave Winfield comps as he cut his K rate down to a more manageable 22.6% while upping his walk rate a bit to 7.1% while racking up a 290/340/459 line in 657 plate appearances. He hit only 18 home runs but did add 35 steals while being caught 11 times. Overall it was a small baby step foreword but given the ability to play a full season at the major league level, Kemp showed some of the promise that made him such a highly regarded prospect. Heading into the 09 season he was considered a breakout candidate and his performance will be one of the main factors in the Dodgers ultimate success.

So far this year Kemp has compiled a 316/398/579 line with 3 home runs and 5 steals in six attempts. His BABIP of 396 does not seem completely sustainable as he is hitting significantly less line drives than before with a subsequent spike in fly ball rate. He is however doing one thing much better; drawing walks. So far this year Kemp's walk rate has jumped to 11.6% with walks in his last 4 straight contests. Small sample size caveat applies here though, the season is only 21 games old and Kemp has just 88 plate appearances or just 1/8 of his season total. On the other hand, Kemp is just 24 years old and recently passed the 324 game plateau 2 days ago. So while he has seen action at the major league level in each of the past 4 seasons, he only has two years worth of big league game time. Prospects generally don't come up fully developed and when they are shuffled back and fourth and benched in favor of Juan Pierre, sometimes it takes a little longer to develop. If Matt Kemp has truly developed his on base skills to the point he's shown thus far this year, then he should soon be one of the better OF in the National League.