Planning for 09-The Regulars

So, I already addressed my thoughts on the rotation and bullpen so now it's time to turn my thoughtful gaze upon the everyday lineup and bench. We start in LF where the absence of Pat Burrell overshadows the entire off season. Over the last three seasons Burrell has posted a 254/385/504 line with 92 HR's. He is 3rd all-time in franchise history in HR's (that says a lot about the Phillies problems over the past 120 years). He has posted an OBP of at least 367 and a SLG% of at least 500 in each of the last 4 years. He has become a constant threat and a difficult out, helping to move the offense from good to one of baseball's best the past three years. He is also 32 years old, just posted his worst OBP since 2004 and has posted the worst +/- of any left fielder in all of baseball since 2006. The Phillies have no in house candidates to replace him and the most viable FA option is Manny Ramirez and he will not be signing here. So, what gets done?

At the outset of the off season I really thought the Phils should be trying to make a trade with Detroit for Ordonez. However that is probably not a realistic option at this point. The Tigers are looking to reduce payroll, but not so desperately that they would offer Mags in a salary dump. The Phils may have the talent available, but I wouldn't bet on it. The best idea I see is to try and make a move for Mike Cameron and slide Werth into a LF platoon with Jenkins. The Brewers have needs and a one year $10 million deal is worth taking on. The other option is to go the low route and sign Juan Rivera to fill the right hand platoon role and rotate in Jenkins/Dobbs. The word coming from management is that they are comfortable with a Jenkins/Dobbs/Stairs platoon. I have one word for that idea; SCARY! Stairs is 41 years old and can barely move, while Dobbs has not played in the OF since becoming a bench regular last year. Jenkins isn't a butcher in the OF, but he's not exactly an everyday player. So the overall picture here looks pretty grim. I don't think the Phils will make a Cameron play and even if they sign Rivera and platoon him in with Jenkins they still will be losing offense. Furthermore they will still be lacking the RH bat they need to separate Utely and Howard. So it's safe to assume LF will be a net minus for the Phils next year.

So now we turn our attention to the infield. This is where the Phils strength comes from as Utley/Rollins form the best up the middle tandem in baseball both offensively and defensively. Ryan Howard is a top 5 first basemen and has perhaps the greatest raw power in the game right now. 3B has been a trouble spot since Rolen left, however the Feliz/Dobbs combo is better than the Bell/Nunez years and Donald may be able to contribute next year as well.

First the bad news; Ryan Howard is getting worse every year. His IsoP, AB/HR and BB/SO rates have all been going down over the last three years. His OBP of 339 last year was only tolerable because of his power. He is one of the worst fielding 1B in the league. All that being said, he will hit 45 or more home runs and continues to murder mediocre pitching. He needs a caddie against LHP (224/294/451 last year) and seems to disappear for the first two months of every season. He may well win another MVP this year, but he is not a top 10 player in the NL. He is an asset for the next two years or so but if the Phils sign him to that 7 year $150 million deal he wants it will be a huge mistake.

Now the good news; the Phils can reasonably expect more production out of Jimmy Rollins this year. Rollins missed a month with an ankle injury and never seemed to fully recover. Utley also was hampered over the last month and a half by a hip injury that sapped his power. This of course is two years in a row with an injury and almost definitely has to do with his leading the league in HBP each of the last two years. Increased production from Utley and Rollins will help offset some of the loss from Pat the Bat. One other spot the Phils should enjoy increased production is from the catcher spot, otherwise known as the offensive black hole. Simply put it would be very hard to do worse than the 219/320/300 line Ruiz put up last year. Increased production from Ruiz plus contributions from Lou Marson should make this another area where the Phils should be improved from last year, although they will probably still fall below league average.

Lastly we turn our attention to the bench. This was an area of strength in 08, mostly due to Gregg Dobbs. Dobbs had a great year as a pinch hitter/3B fill in and should continue to produce next year. The concern of course is that if given the lions share of time at either LF/3B he would be exposed and lose value. Moving either Werth or Jenkins (or both) to full time roles they are not suited for will further weaken the becnh. Look for the Phils to sign a RH 4 corners type to help fill their bench along with using Donaldson as a utility type player to try and push Bruntlett further down the depth chart. Expecting Chris Coste to be a significant contributor or Greg Golson to be ready for the show is a mistake. The bench should wind up being an asset as this is one of the few areas Manual seems to make decent decisions.

Overall expect the Phils offensive production to be approximately what it was last year, with a dip in power coming from the corner OF spots as they will most likely not adequately replace Burrell's offense and 08 was probably Werth's career year. OF defense and offense at C/SS and possibly 2B should be increased and thus offset some of Burrell's loss. Much like this year the Phils success will depend largely on what they get our of their pitching staff. The offense is good, it's just not world class.