Now that the parade is over and Broad Streets been all cleaned up, it's time to look ahead to what challenges face the world series champs as we move into 09. Not since the Yankees of the late 90's has baseball had a repeat champion and not since the Big Red Machine of the 70's has an NL team been able to repeat, so what chances do the Phils have of repeating as we look at their roster as it stands today? We'll start with the pitching staff and then take a look at the positional players tomorrow.
In order to assess their chances we need to first look at the current roster to see where we can expect declining performance and where we might see improved performance. The first order of business though will be to address the question mark that will be Cole Hamels 2009 season. Through his first two plus seasons in the majors, Hamels has seen significant improvement from year to year. A quick look at his three year ERA+ trend shows 115/136/145. In each of his two full seasons he has been in the top 5 in the NL in WHIP and K/BB rate and the top 10 in BB/9, H/9, K's and ERA+. These improving trend lines along with his postseason performance seem to indicate an upper echelon pitcher entering his prime seasons. This Cole Hamels would be key to another playoff appearance by the Phils. The question mark that comes into play here is how Hamels will react to the significant workload increase he saw this year. In 2007 Hamels threw a total of 189.5 innings (regular season+playoffs), a career high. This year at 24 years of age he threw a combined 262.3 innings, shattering his career high mark by more than 70 innings. Many pitchers experience significant performance decline the year after a long postseason, even more worrying is the fact that picthers under 25 experience an increased injury risk when surpassing their career high IP by more than 30. If Hamels is either ineffective, hurt or both, then the Phillies chances at repeating will be severely reduced. How Hamels recovers from this years workload may be the single most important aspect of the 2009 season.
The next area that needs to be addressed is the Phillies bullpen. In 2008 the combination of Lidge, Madson, Chad Durbin and Romero accounted for one of the best bullpens in baseball. That won't happen again. Brad Lidge will not be perfect. Chad Durbin will not have an ERA+ of 152, especially when you consider his career ERA+ of 88. The Phillies will need to anticipate a performance drop from this group and make moves to address that this offseason rather than in season. They do not have much in the way of internal options, although Mathieson and Bisenius may be able to help. If the Phils want to look to the Free agent market for help, Joe Beimel, Jeremy Affeldt, Wil Ohman and Brandon Lyon would be amongst the most helpful. As of today, the rumblings coming from new GM Ruben Amaro Jr is that they will try to re-sign Scott Eyre. This won't be enough to offset the predictable performance decline and seems to imply that ownership/management may be going with "the guys that got us there" approach. Not promising.
The 2009 rotation has three slots already locked down and the assumption is that Moyer will be back for 09, thus leaving one empty slot. Getting a starter who can outperform Moyer and Blanton would be very advisable. Jamie Moyer had his best season since 2003 and to expect the same performance from him in 09 would be a bad bet. More likely than not we will see the 07 Moyer, which isn't the worst thing in the world if you have him slotted in as a back end starter but will hurt if they consider him their number 3 guy. This offseason provides plenty of FA starters and while we know the Phils will not be serious players for Sabathia, there are other legitimate options available. With their outstanding infield defense I would hope the Phils would make a play for Derek Lowe, however with the Yankees/Mets/Red Sox all being interested let's assume for the moment we don't sign him. Sheets and Burnett are both injury risks, Type A free agents and will still likely command top dollar and long term deals. A good bounce-back, injury type starter to consider should be Brad Penny. Penny's option was declined and it's doubtful they offer him arbitration so there is no draft pick compensation to worry about (I may be wrong on that one). Penny was hurt and bad in 08 and will be looking to bounce back and may be willing to accept an incentive laden one year deal. Additionally, if healthy he has the chance to be the second best pitcher on the staff and would not just be a Jon Garland innings eater type. He will be in the lower rung of pitchers sought after the above mentioned FA's plus Jake Peavy being available along with potentially Edwin Jackson and Sonnanstine. A full medical history and physical would be highly recommended prior to signing though. Internal options include JA Happ, potentially Carrasco and (gulp) Kendrick.
The one pitching slot where an improved performance can reasonably be expected is with Brett Myers. After a year as a reliever, Myers was absolutely one of the worst pitchers in baseball the first half. After a three game minor league stint he came back and was dominant for about two months before two dreadful starts to end the year. In his last two years as a starter before converting to relief in 07, Myers posted ERA+'s of 118 and 120. Not exactly Cy young caliber, but much better than his 96 from this year. It's not out of the question to see Myers regain that level of performance and thus help strengthen the rotation. Although Myers might be a potential bright spot, the rest of the pitching staff as construed right now points to a legitimate decline and thus a hindrance to another division title should management not be pro-active this offseason. Next I'll be taking a look at the everyday players and pondering the Pat Burrell dilemma.
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