Monday, November 10, 2008

Trade season has started.

OK raise your hands if you were looking foreword to the Matt Holliday era in Oakland. Nobody? That's because this one came out of nowhere. As Heyman writes in his article, Billy Beane has done some unforeseen things in his tenure as GM, but this may be the most puzzling of them all. Acquiring high priced talent has not exactly been the game plan around Oakland these past two decades or so. So what exactly is going on here? Is this a management forced move, does Beane think the A's are one good bat away, does Beane know something about the 2010 draft we don't? I'm not really sure and I'm having a hard time seeing this draft from Oakland's perspective. I'm going to put these questions aside from the minute as they will surely be addressed in depth over at ESPN, SI, FOX and all the other various (better) blogs.


I'm interested in this trade from the Rockies perspective. The rumored deal would have them receive Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street. Greg Smith had himself a very nice rookie campaign in Oakland, but a quick look at his stats seems to indicate a bad fit here: 87 BB in 190 IP and a G/F ratio of .78. In other words the Rockies just acquired a pitcher who walks a lot of batters and gives up a lot of flyballs. That's a bad Coors combo. The centerpiece of the deal would seem to be Gonzalez who was labeled #28 on BA's top 50 list and #26 on BP's headed into the season. Despite a poor rookie campaign, Gonzalez has tools galore and can cover extensive ground in the OF which is mandatory in Coors. Combine him with Dexter Fowler (#3 on BA's top 30 for Colorado) and you have a very strong potential OF. Street is the wild card here, he's not eligible for free agency until 2011 so they could keep him to replace Fuentes or they could flip as the reports from cbs.com state. Either way this is an indication that the Rockies view last year as the true talent level of their roster and not the last 30 games of the 07 season. It will be very interesting to see what these teams do from here.


The other big trade of the day was the Marlins sending Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio (seriously what is up with everyone on the Diamondback's BA top 30 list being traded multiple times-I'm just waiting for the Max Scherzer/Justin Upton for Jake Peavy trade) and a pair of players from the Nationals rookie league squad. When I first read this article my initial reaction was, "Is that all they could get?" A quick glance at the handy BA prospect handbook shows Jake Smolinski listed as #11 on their top 30 and P.J. Dean at number 30. Smolinski is evaluated as having "good power to the gaps" while Dean's upside is as a mid-rotation starter.  Smolinski will miss most of 09 after having knee surgery (courtesy Keith Law)  Bonifacio looks like a utility player. This seems to be a salary dump as both players are arbitration eligible. Although Willingham has injury problems, he still hit 20 plus homers in 06/07 with solid on-base skills and Olsen is a solid mid-rotation starter. Packaging them together should have gotten the Marlins something better than a utility player and a couple of 19 year old question marks. Then again they may know something the rest of us don't.  Whether this was a salary dump or not, I doubt this is the last trade we will see the Marlins making.

The final news of the day is that San Diego has withdrawn its contract offer to Trevor Hoffman, thus ending his Padres career.   So there is now one more "established" closer out there for teams in need.  I can see him in an Indians uniform for some reason, although I think the league/park change would kill him.  Well it looks like we might be in for a second straight highly entertaining off season, so sit back and enjoy.

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