Arguing with the Oracle*

"Fielder and Ramirez had good years, not great years, but they had lesser seasons in 2008 than in 2007..."  

That quote is taken directly from the young talent inventory in the 2009 Bill James Handbook and was written by James himself.  In this inventory James also lists Prince Fielder as the best young player in the league.  As you can tell by the title of the post, I'm not on board with that statement.  The idea that a young Ryan Howard is better than equally (or better) performing players at up the middle positions and much better players at third base but who may be one year older boggles my mind.  Not to mention ace starting pitching.  Would any GM draft Fielder ahead of David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes or Cole Hamles?  What about Grady Sizemore, Evan Longoria or even Fielders teammate Ryan Braun?  James defends his list by stating that he's not trying to create the perfect, end all top 25 of young talent, but rather to gather which teams have the most young talent and whether there is more young talent than normal.  But how can you do this successfully when you can't even properly evaluate the young talent playing right now?

James ranked Fielder and Ramirez 1-2 on his top 25 list along with stating that both players suffered a performance drop.  I'm going to contest both aspects of that argument.  Both players are the same age, yet one plays SS and the other 1B.  Any cursory understanding of the game validates that SS is the more important position.  For a direct comparison I'm going use two Bill James tools; runs created and win shares (even though I don't really like them).  I will also be using OPS+ and WARP1.  Fielders 2008 line runs 105 RC, 23 WS, 128 OPS+ and 5.9 Warp1.  For Ramirez it's 116 RC, 32 WS, 146 OPS+ and 10.3 Warp1.  Their raw slash lines read; Fielder 276/372/507 with 34 HR and 301/400/540 with 33 HR.  Ramirez wins the comparison hands down.  James never gives any defense or reasoning as to why he picks Fielder over Ramirez, but from where I'm sitting, all evidence points to Ramirez being the far superior player.  

My final disagreement is with the idea that Ramirez had a lesser 2008 than 2007.  In James defense Ramirez lost 31 points of BA, 22 points of slugging and 16 SB.  However his OBP increased by 14 points despite the drop in BA and his IsoP rose from .230 to .239.  Plus his 32 WS surpasses James unofficial MVP mark of 30, while his 10.3 Warp1 is an increase of almost 3 wins from 07 as his FRAA rose from -22 to -3.  Essentially his on-base abilities continued to increase, his power hitting up ticked in the slightest and he moved from one of the worst defensive SS's to an almost average one.  Ramirez had an MVP type season and was most likely one of the 5 best players in the NL.  To say that he had a lessor season makes it appear as if Bill James is drastically over-valuing raw BA, something he's been preaching against for decades.  

Bill James has done more to develop and promote an analytical approach to baseball than I could in 15 lifetimes, yet here it seems as thought he's starting from a list and forming arguments around it.  Hopefully this was just a result of James being rushed and not a sign of him reaching his decline phase.

*as labeled by the Wall Street Journal

Ugh....

Well, it looks like my argument with Bill James will have to wait a couple of days now that the Phils have gone and done something stupid, signing Raul Ibanez to a 3 year/$30 million contract.  This move is perplexing for several reasons; first Ibanez is 5 years older, second he cost us our first round draft pick, third he's no better than Burrell on defense, fourth he's no where near as good as Burrell when it comes to getting on base and finally he's left handed.  Oh, and in a saturated market the Phils sign maybe the worst of the numerous OF/DH types first without waiting to see what the market sets as value.  

The first thing everyone is going to say is that Pat can't play defense.  Well, neither can Ibanez.  Over the last two years John Dewans +/- has Burrell at -47 plays and Ibanez at -43.  Baseball prospectus FRAA has Burrell at -29 runs with Ibanez at -16.  So Ibanez has been slightly better over the last two years, meaning we've replaced the worst LF with the third worst LF.  Not an improvement.   Next Phils fans will bring up Ibanez's batting average, which is definitely better than Burrells.  However his OBP has been significantly lower anyway.  Burrell the last 4 years; 389/388/400/367.  Ibanez; 355/353/351/358.   So now our lineup is making outs at a higher rate.  The LF problem comes into play in a big way here as every NL East team will just throw out those LOOGY to deal with Utley/Howard/Ibanez.   

The problems with this deal are compounded by the earlier decision not to offer Burrell arbitration.  So now instead of either having Burrell's last tail end prime year or netting two draft picks, we've signed a decline phase player who cost us our own pick.  The net transaction here is probably $6 million saved this year, an extra $14 on the books for the next two years and a net loss of three draft picks for a pretty good scouting/development team.  Oh and we're not any better than last year, maybe a bit worse.  Look Ibanez will probably have a decent season next year and if we don't defend the division title this move will probably not be the sole reason, but it is a short sighted move that will hamper this teams success no later than 2010.  Oh and I'm not the only one saying this, check out this site, this one, how  bout this one or you could just head over ussmariner.com and see what Mariners fans and Dave Cameron think.  

Honestly at this point I'm too tired to go into any of my other problems with Ibanez, but this signing coupled with reports that the Phils will give 46 year old Jaime Moyer a 2 year deal gives me a great deal of distrust in the early days of the Ruben Amaro Jr. reign.  

Quick Hits on a busy couple of days...

So I haven't been able to respond to the flurry of activity the past couple of days as previous engagements have kept me occupied after works hours.  However I will now attempt a couple of quick thoughts on some of the activity on the past 48 hours.

The Yankees apparently have Sabathia all but in uniform, at record price of course.  This was expected from the outset and fills the Yanks most glaring need, as Sabathia will provide both quantity and quality and help eliminate those Sidney Ponson/Darrell Rasner sightings.  As for the contract itself, it's being reported as 7 years/$160 million although there is apparently a player option after the third year.  This seems like a bad idea for the club as these type of options almost always work against them, but then again maybe that's what was needed to lure Sabathia to New York as he did seem hesitant to leave the West Coast/small market type team.  I'm not going to go any further into the pros/cons and possibility of injury based on Sabathia's size as they've been discussed elsewhere and in better depth than I can convey.   Also late yesterday/today came word that the Yanks are also close to acquiring Mike Cameron for either Melky or a Melky based package.  Cameron is a close friend of Sabathia, a decent CF (which would make him the Yanks best defensive player) and an obvious offensive upgrade over the position last year.  The Yanks can easily afford both his salary and losing the 4th OF in Cabrera.  These two moves show the Yankees once again using their financial resources to get what they want.  I wonder though if in the end they'll wish they had signed Teixera instead as he's a much sounder investment and I doubt even the Yankees can sign CC and Tex in the same off season.

Not to be completely outdone, the Mets signed K-Rod to a team friendly deal and nabbed JJ Putz in a three team, 12 player NBA style mega-deal with the Indians and Mariners filling in the various other loose parts.  In 2 days the Mets have created potentially the best back end pen in the NL.  Putz has injury questions from last year and K-Rod has diminishing stuff issues, but both are clearly upgrades over an entire bullpen of situational guys they had last year.  The Mets lose Heilman, Carp and a young upside arm whose name escapes me at the moment(I'm doing this post quick and don't have all relevant links). For what they gave up their return is great.  If healthy Putz will be better than K-Rod while pitching more high leverage innings and helping the Mets begin to play 7 inning games.  The Mariners get increased defense in Gutierrez and Endy Chavez, which will be a real asset given their vast outfield space.  They also acquire the upside arm in question.  The Indians jettison a 4th OF while obtaining a legit 2B prospect from the Mariners.  This should let them slide Asdrubel Cabrera and Johnny Peralta over to SS/3B respectively while improving offensively at 2B.  Again the prospects name escapes me.

The trade that I like the best though has to be the Rays-Tigers trade as it shows once again the ability of a good front office to leverage a player at peak value while getting a good return that fills a team need while fitting into the organizational philosophy perfectly.  The Detroit Tigers needed depth at pitching and rightly identified the Rays as a team with a potential surplus.  The problem is they went after the wrong guy.  Domborski described Edwin Jackson as having a "breakout season", something which the numbers just don't support.  Jackson's improvements can be almost completely tied to the Rays increased defense, and while Adam Everett, Brandon Inge and Placido Polanco make up a good defensive IF, the OF corners and 1B will be trouble spots.  To get Jackson the Tigers gave up Matt Joyce, a decent prospect with average to slightly above average power and who plays a good RF.  Joyce is two years further from arbitration than Jackson and a better bet to contribute to a winning club in meaningful way.  The Tigers weird obsession with playing Guillen in LF, getting a new SS while keeping Sheffield allowed the Rays to make this move.  It seems like the best decision would have been to keep Guillen at short while platooning Joyce and Thames with Ordonez playing left on days Joyce was in the lineup to maximize the clubs offensive and defensive assets.  Now they've gotten a pitcher whom, they'll slot in a the number 3 guy and get 5/6 production out of.  Jackson best future role is in a relief spot, possibly super long relief as he does have good stuff and stamina.  (I know I have not used any stats but if someone is reading and wants to challenge me please do) Or, if they were going to trade Joyce, they should have gone after Sonnenstine, who seems a better bet to at least be a slightly above average innings eater (For some reason I'm obsessed with a Cory Hart for Sonnenstine deal, don't ask).  The Rays get a strong side platoon player and open up a spot for Price in the rotation. 

There were a handful of other trades, signings and of course the rule 5 draft, but this is not www.mlbtraderumors.com and I'm not Buster Olney or Jon Heyman so I'm not going to comment on all of them other than to say giving Casey Blake a three year deal with an option for a fourth is probably not the best idea.  Anyway join me next time when I discuss my disagreement with Bill James young player index in the 2009 handbook.  

A tip of the cap

Greg Maddox is set to retire on Monday, ending the career of quite possibly the best pitcher I have ever seen.  I'm not going to take the time to debate Maddox vs Clemens, or Maddox's longevity vs. Pedro's peak.  I just want to take a few moments to voice my respect and appreciation for being able to witness his talents.  He won 4 CY young awards and finished in the top 5 another 5 times while recording three top 5 MVP finishes.  From 1992-2002 his ERA+ lines read as follows; 166, 171, 271, 262, 162, 189, 187, 125, 153, 146 and 159.  That run of dominance was preceded by 4 years as an above average performer and followed by 6 years as a mostly league average pitcher who never got hurt.  Maddox's career includes an all-time peak, an extended period of dominance and an additional 10 years of average to above average performance. Among his other accomplishments were leading his league in GS seven times, IP five times, CG three times, ShO five times and ERA 4 times.  He threw at least 194 innings his each of his last 21 seasons, surpassing 200 18 times.   He is third all-time in wins amongst pitchers whose career began after 1900 and his career ERA+ stands at 132.  What I'll remember the most is just how useless he made even the best hitters look while in his prime years.  In 1994 and 1995 he posted seasons straight out of the 60's and had a nearly 9:1 K:BB ratio in 95.  I could go on and on like this but it's probably easier for you to just head over to www.baseball-reference.com or just read one the many, better articles that are sure to spring up in the next few days.  I just felt the need to say my piece about Maddox's extraordinary career.  

No arbitration for Burrell

The refusal to offer arbitration to Pat Burrell is the clearest sign we've gotten from the Phils new management as to what to expect from them as far as future payroll goes.  Next years payroll will be increase from this year (mostly due to arb raises to Howard/Hamels and a decent pay bump for Utley) but it is clear that the Phils have no intention of crossing the $120 million mark for payroll.  Given the uncertain FA market it wouldn't be completely insane to see a scenario where Burrell does not get a multi-year offer to his liking and accepts arbitration and is awarded a $15 million plus deal for next year.  That apparently is something that ownership/management is not willing to let happen.  It also seems to indicate that they will not be major players on the FA market.  It was already assumed that Sabathia/Ramirez were out of the question, but now we are presented with evidence that seems to indicate they will not be going after Lowe or Burnett. 

 Amaro continues to state that improving the teams pitching is their number one goal. So what sensible moves are left if Lowe and Burnett are not realistic targets?  Signing either Randy Johnson or Brad Penny to a one year deal would make a great deal of sense as either one should be better than Blanton/Kendrick/Happ/et all and neither requires draft pick compensation.  Add in a Juan Cruz or Kerry Wood addition to the bullpen and you're looking at improved pitching depth with less cost in dollars/years than signing any of the big ticket guys.   Of course it won't be that simple, Wood is probably  looking for a closers job and there has been little talk to indicate serious interest in Penny or Johnson from the Phils.  Still with little to report on the once assumed slam dunk re-signing of Moyer, it's clear that the Phils are aware they need SP help and I expect them to make a move or two to address that.  Whether they do something intelligent like pulling off  a trade like the one the Braves apparently have, making a decent FA signing or whether they do something stupid like giving Jon Garland a multi year deal remains to be seen.  The best that can be hoped for is that Amaro has learned from the Freddy Garcia/Adam Eaton stupidities of the past and can properly evaluate risk/reward for FA while at the same time being creative in trades and roster management.  It's your turn Ruben, don't let us down.

What to do until June?

With the announcement that Chase Utley will be having hip surgery and may be out until June, the Phils are now faced with playing as much as one-third of the season without two of their four best players from last year. Burrell is almost definitely gone as the Golson trade seems to indicate. Trading for a minor league right handed power bat who is major league ready is not exactly a subtle move. However with the news of Utleys injury and the subsequent rehab time associated, the Phils may become more tempted to make a big move to make up for the lost offense as they try to defend their title. Signing Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn or trading for Beltre would certainly make the headlines and let the casual fan know that they are "trying", not to mention spending money. However the better may simply be to let Jason Donald get a crack at the job while bringing in someone from the Tadahito Iguchi/Marcus Giles/Jerry Hairston crew to add depth. It would serve to give a realistic opportunity at league average production while awaiting Utleys return and brings me to my central idea for this year; depth.

The Phillies will not be able to replace Burrell and Utleys production without spending a lot of money, most of which would be ill advised. There are no big time impact players ready for 09 in the system and no free agents that really fit the bill in terms of position/production/age and cost. Building depth is the best way to get by this year. Trading Golston for John Mayberry Jr is a first step as he adds a potential right hand bat to platoon with Jenkin/Stairs in LF. Adda Feliz/Dobbs platoon at left and then use a Jason Donald and lets say Jerry Hairston platoon at 2B and you'd have an everyday lineup/bench able to utilize situational advantages as they present themselves. This is a good, low-cost short term solution to the losses of Burrell and Utley. You don't tie yourself down to multiple years or big dollars and allow yourself room to make an in season upgrade for whoever doesn't pan out; and they won't all pan out. As an extra potential bonus, if Donald produces his trade value will be very high come the all-star break and into the off season. Many teams could use him as a starting SS and given he has no MLB service time going into 09 he could be used to acquire a needed part if the Phils remain in contention. He could also enter the 3B mix upon Utleys return if he's playing well but either of Feliz or Dobbs is struggling/injured.

The best strategy for next year still lie with an increased attention to run prevention, however with Utleys injury management may be forced to make a stronger move for a bat then they would normally. As I mentioned in an earlier post the relief corps is the area of the team most likely to decline based on last years numbers. Addressing the everyday lineup with the idea of quality depth and match up play should allow for the Phils to focus on the bullpen and rotation upgrades that will be needed to repeat as division champs in 09.

MVP Thoughts

Tomorrow afternoon MLB will reveal the results of the NL MVP balloting and it may well come to pass the Ryan Howard will win his second MVP award in three years. The fact that this is even a possibility has me at the point of no longer caring about the awards handed out by the BBWAA. It's bad enough three of the voters voted for a non-rookie for rookie of the year, but it's absolutely insane that just perusing the RBI's leaders is all that is expected out of the voters for the leagues top award. By any objective measure Ryan Howard was not the MVP. He was not the best player on his team. He was not the best player at his position. He was not one of the ten best players in his league. Bringing offense only to the table, he was not one of the ten best offensive players in his league. Yet because he hit 48 HR's and had 146 RBI while having his one good month in Sept he might be voted the MOST VALUABLE PLAYER in the entire league. I just can't get over how positional value, defensive value and the ability to not make outs (i.e. producing runs) doesn't matter. Being a power hitter on a good team is what it takes to win the MVP. I wouldn't really care all that much if it wasn't for the fact that these awards then get used to determine hall of fame eligibility and shape public perception of a players value. Maybe what bugs me most of all is that people who get paid to be informed, knowledgeable baseball writers don't seem to care enough to do any basic research when handing out awards. I mean, can't they even order a copy of the Bill James handbook or peruse baseball-reference.com? I'm just waiting for the day when the BBWAA cares more about analyzing the actual sport they cover rather than trying to get the same stupid locker room quotes after every game. Then again, maybe I'm expecting too much.

What goes on in Kenny Williams mind?

Lets see if I have this right. Following the 2007 season the White Sox sent Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, Ryan Sweeney and $3.5 million to the Oakland Athletics for Nick Swisher. The the players sent represented the #1, #2 and #6 prospects in the White Sox system according to BP. In 2007 Swisher hit 262/381/455 with 22 HR's while playing OF/1B. This trade coupled with the Dan Haren deal were the signals of another rebuilding phase in Oakland while acquiring Swisher was meant to give the White Sox a bit more consistent offense as they felt lacking in OBP. Now after a horrid year by Swisher, 219/332/410 with 24 HR's, they have shipped him off to the Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez, or to be more exact; a utility player and a pair of future middle relief arms. Swisher is under contract through 2011 to the tune of $26 million, which is part of why the Sox went after him in the first place. They had planned on using him to help them turn the page when it was time to move on from Dye/Konerko/Thome.

Now the White Sox have virtually nothing to show for trading their top 2 prospects and have shown quite a bit of impatience with one of their own players. Batting average was never Swishers strong point and it almost seemed inevitable he'd have a season like this. His BB rate and IsoP are almost identical as in 2007 and his K rate is only slightly higher. Based on these numbers it seems as though the only real change was his batting average on balls in play (don't have the figures available this second). This has the potential to be a steal for the Yankees as they can easily carry Swishers contract even if he really is done. On the other hand if he does bounce back to the useful player he was before, he will help cushion the blow of the loss of Abreu and the continued decline of Matsui/Posada. Overall this looks like a short sighted move by Kenny Williams as he traded a once very good young player at his lowest point of value. Even if they felt he gave up last year (which they did) they still could have brought him back to re-establish a little value so they could better recoup what they gave up to get him.

Planning for 09-The Regulars

So, I already addressed my thoughts on the rotation and bullpen so now it's time to turn my thoughtful gaze upon the everyday lineup and bench. We start in LF where the absence of Pat Burrell overshadows the entire off season. Over the last three seasons Burrell has posted a 254/385/504 line with 92 HR's. He is 3rd all-time in franchise history in HR's (that says a lot about the Phillies problems over the past 120 years). He has posted an OBP of at least 367 and a SLG% of at least 500 in each of the last 4 years. He has become a constant threat and a difficult out, helping to move the offense from good to one of baseball's best the past three years. He is also 32 years old, just posted his worst OBP since 2004 and has posted the worst +/- of any left fielder in all of baseball since 2006. The Phillies have no in house candidates to replace him and the most viable FA option is Manny Ramirez and he will not be signing here. So, what gets done?

At the outset of the off season I really thought the Phils should be trying to make a trade with Detroit for Ordonez. However that is probably not a realistic option at this point. The Tigers are looking to reduce payroll, but not so desperately that they would offer Mags in a salary dump. The Phils may have the talent available, but I wouldn't bet on it. The best idea I see is to try and make a move for Mike Cameron and slide Werth into a LF platoon with Jenkins. The Brewers have needs and a one year $10 million deal is worth taking on. The other option is to go the low route and sign Juan Rivera to fill the right hand platoon role and rotate in Jenkins/Dobbs. The word coming from management is that they are comfortable with a Jenkins/Dobbs/Stairs platoon. I have one word for that idea; SCARY! Stairs is 41 years old and can barely move, while Dobbs has not played in the OF since becoming a bench regular last year. Jenkins isn't a butcher in the OF, but he's not exactly an everyday player. So the overall picture here looks pretty grim. I don't think the Phils will make a Cameron play and even if they sign Rivera and platoon him in with Jenkins they still will be losing offense. Furthermore they will still be lacking the RH bat they need to separate Utely and Howard. So it's safe to assume LF will be a net minus for the Phils next year.

So now we turn our attention to the infield. This is where the Phils strength comes from as Utley/Rollins form the best up the middle tandem in baseball both offensively and defensively. Ryan Howard is a top 5 first basemen and has perhaps the greatest raw power in the game right now. 3B has been a trouble spot since Rolen left, however the Feliz/Dobbs combo is better than the Bell/Nunez years and Donald may be able to contribute next year as well.

First the bad news; Ryan Howard is getting worse every year. His IsoP, AB/HR and BB/SO rates have all been going down over the last three years. His OBP of 339 last year was only tolerable because of his power. He is one of the worst fielding 1B in the league. All that being said, he will hit 45 or more home runs and continues to murder mediocre pitching. He needs a caddie against LHP (224/294/451 last year) and seems to disappear for the first two months of every season. He may well win another MVP this year, but he is not a top 10 player in the NL. He is an asset for the next two years or so but if the Phils sign him to that 7 year $150 million deal he wants it will be a huge mistake.

Now the good news; the Phils can reasonably expect more production out of Jimmy Rollins this year. Rollins missed a month with an ankle injury and never seemed to fully recover. Utley also was hampered over the last month and a half by a hip injury that sapped his power. This of course is two years in a row with an injury and almost definitely has to do with his leading the league in HBP each of the last two years. Increased production from Utley and Rollins will help offset some of the loss from Pat the Bat. One other spot the Phils should enjoy increased production is from the catcher spot, otherwise known as the offensive black hole. Simply put it would be very hard to do worse than the 219/320/300 line Ruiz put up last year. Increased production from Ruiz plus contributions from Lou Marson should make this another area where the Phils should be improved from last year, although they will probably still fall below league average.

Lastly we turn our attention to the bench. This was an area of strength in 08, mostly due to Gregg Dobbs. Dobbs had a great year as a pinch hitter/3B fill in and should continue to produce next year. The concern of course is that if given the lions share of time at either LF/3B he would be exposed and lose value. Moving either Werth or Jenkins (or both) to full time roles they are not suited for will further weaken the becnh. Look for the Phils to sign a RH 4 corners type to help fill their bench along with using Donaldson as a utility type player to try and push Bruntlett further down the depth chart. Expecting Chris Coste to be a significant contributor or Greg Golson to be ready for the show is a mistake. The bench should wind up being an asset as this is one of the few areas Manual seems to make decent decisions.

Overall expect the Phils offensive production to be approximately what it was last year, with a dip in power coming from the corner OF spots as they will most likely not adequately replace Burrell's offense and 08 was probably Werth's career year. OF defense and offense at C/SS and possibly 2B should be increased and thus offset some of Burrell's loss. Much like this year the Phils success will depend largely on what they get our of their pitching staff. The offense is good, it's just not world class.

Trade season has started.

OK raise your hands if you were looking foreword to the Matt Holliday era in Oakland. Nobody? That's because this one came out of nowhere. As Heyman writes in his article, Billy Beane has done some unforeseen things in his tenure as GM, but this may be the most puzzling of them all. Acquiring high priced talent has not exactly been the game plan around Oakland these past two decades or so. So what exactly is going on here? Is this a management forced move, does Beane think the A's are one good bat away, does Beane know something about the 2010 draft we don't? I'm not really sure and I'm having a hard time seeing this draft from Oakland's perspective. I'm going to put these questions aside from the minute as they will surely be addressed in depth over at ESPN, SI, FOX and all the other various (better) blogs.

I'm interested in this trade from the Rockies perspective. The rumored deal would have them receive Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street. Greg Smith had himself a very nice rookie campaign in Oakland, but a quick look at his stats seems to indicate a bad fit here: 87 BB in 190 IP and a G/F ratio of .78. In other words the Rockies just acquired a pitcher who walks a lot of batters and gives up a lot of flyballs. That's a bad Coors combo. The centerpiece of the deal would seem to be Gonzalez who was labeled #28 on BA's top 50 list and #26 on BP's headed into the season. Despite a poor rookie campaign, Gonzalez has tools galore and can cover extensive ground in the OF which is mandatory in Coors. Combine him with Dexter Fowler (#3 on BA's top 30 for Colorado) and you have a very strong potential OF. Street is the wild card here, he's not eligible for free agency until 2011 so they could keep him to replace Fuentes or they could flip as the reports from cbs.com state. Either way this is an indication that the Rockies view last year as the true talent level of their roster and not the last 30 games of the 07 season. It will be very interesting to see what these teams do from here.

The other big trade of the day was the Marlins sending Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio (seriously what is up with everyone on the Diamondback's BA top 30 list being traded multiple times-I'm just waiting for the Max Scherzer/Justin Upton for Jake Peavy trade) and a pair of players from the Nationals rookie league squad. When I first read this article my initial reaction was, "Is that all they could get?" A quick glance at the handy BA prospect handbook shows Jake Smolinski listed as #11 on their top 30 and P.J. Dean at number 30. Smolinski is evaluated as having "good power to the gaps" while Dean's upside is as a mid-rotation starter.  Smolinski will miss most of 09 after having knee surgery (courtesy Keith Law)  Bonifacio looks like a utility player. This seems to be a salary dump as both players are arbitration eligible. Although Willingham has injury problems, he still hit 20 plus homers in 06/07 with solid on-base skills and Olsen is a solid mid-rotation starter. Packaging them together should have gotten the Marlins something better than a utility player and a couple of 19 year old question marks. Then again they may know something the rest of us don't.  Whether this was a salary dump or not, I doubt this is the last trade we will see the Marlins making.

The final news of the day is that San Diego has withdrawn its contract offer to Trevor Hoffman, thus ending his Padres career.   So there is now one more "established" closer out there for teams in need.  I can see him in an Indians uniform for some reason, although I think the league/park change would kill him.  Well it looks like we might be in for a second straight highly entertaining off season, so sit back and enjoy.

Planning for 09

Now that the parade is over and Broad Streets been all cleaned up, it's time to look ahead to what challenges face the world series champs as we move into 09. Not since the Yankees of the late 90's has baseball had a repeat champion and not since the Big Red Machine of the 70's has an NL team been able to repeat, so what chances do the Phils have of repeating as we look at their roster as it stands today?  We'll start with the pitching staff and then  take a look at the positional players tomorrow.  

In order to assess their chances we need to first look at the current roster to see where we can expect declining performance and where we might see improved performance. The first order of business though will be to address the question mark that will be Cole Hamels 2009 season. Through his first two plus seasons in the majors, Hamels has seen significant improvement from year to year. A quick look at his three year ERA+ trend shows 115/136/145. In each of his two full seasons he has been in the top 5 in the NL in WHIP and K/BB rate and the top 10 in BB/9, H/9, K's and ERA+. These improving trend lines along with his postseason performance seem to indicate an upper echelon pitcher entering his prime seasons. This Cole Hamels would be key to another playoff appearance by the Phils. The question mark that comes into play here is how Hamels will react to the significant workload increase he saw this year. In 2007 Hamels threw a total of 189.5 innings (regular season+playoffs), a career high. This year at 24 years of age he threw a combined 262.3 innings, shattering his career high mark by more than 70 innings. Many pitchers experience significant performance decline the year after a long postseason, even more worrying is the fact that picthers under 25 experience an increased injury risk when surpassing their career high IP by more than 30. If Hamels is either ineffective, hurt or both, then the Phillies chances at repeating will be severely reduced. How Hamels recovers from this years workload may be the single most important aspect of the 2009 season.

The next area that needs to be addressed is the Phillies bullpen. In 2008 the combination of Lidge, Madson, Chad Durbin and Romero accounted for one of the best bullpens in baseball. That won't happen again. Brad Lidge will not be perfect. Chad Durbin will not have an ERA+ of 152, especially when you consider his career ERA+ of 88. The Phillies will need to anticipate a performance drop from this group and make moves to address that this offseason rather than in season. They do not have much in the way of internal options, although Mathieson and Bisenius may be able to help.    If the Phils want to look to the Free agent market for help, Joe Beimel, Jeremy Affeldt, Wil Ohman and Brandon Lyon would be amongst the most helpful.  As of today, the rumblings coming from new GM Ruben Amaro Jr is that they will try to re-sign Scott Eyre.  This won't be enough to offset the predictable performance decline and seems to imply that ownership/management may be going with "the guys that got us there" approach.  Not promising.

The 2009 rotation has three slots already locked down and the assumption is that Moyer will be back for 09, thus leaving one empty slot.  Getting a starter who can outperform Moyer and Blanton would be very advisable.  Jamie Moyer had his best season since 2003 and to expect the same performance from him in 09 would be a bad bet.  More likely than not we will see the 07 Moyer, which isn't the worst thing in the world if you have him slotted in as a back end starter but will hurt if they consider him their number 3 guy.   This offseason provides plenty of FA starters and while we know the Phils will not be serious players for Sabathia, there are other legitimate options available.  With their outstanding infield defense I would hope the Phils would make a play for Derek Lowe, however with the Yankees/Mets/Red Sox all being interested let's assume for the moment we don't sign him.  Sheets and Burnett are both injury risks, Type A free agents and will still likely command top dollar and long term deals.  A good bounce-back, injury type starter to consider should be Brad Penny.  Penny's option was declined and it's doubtful they offer him arbitration so there is no draft pick compensation to worry about (I may be wrong on that one).  Penny was hurt and bad in 08 and will be looking to bounce back and may be willing to accept an incentive laden one year deal.  Additionally, if healthy he has the chance to be the second best pitcher on the staff and would not just be a Jon Garland innings eater type. He will be in the lower rung of pitchers sought after the above mentioned FA's plus Jake Peavy being available along with potentially Edwin Jackson and Sonnanstine.  A full medical history and physical would be highly recommended prior to signing though.  Internal options include JA Happ, potentially Carrasco and (gulp) Kendrick.

The one pitching slot where an improved performance can reasonably be expected is with Brett Myers.  After a year as a reliever, Myers was absolutely one of the worst pitchers in baseball the first half.  After a three game minor league stint he came back and was dominant for about two months before two dreadful starts to end the year.  In his last two years as a starter before converting to relief in 07, Myers posted ERA+'s of 118 and 120.  Not exactly Cy young caliber, but much better than his 96 from this year.  It's not out of the question to see Myers regain that level of performance and thus help strengthen the rotation.  Although Myers might be a potential bright spot, the rest of the pitching staff as construed right now points to a legitimate decline and thus a hindrance to another division title should management not be pro-active this offseason.  Next I'll be taking a look at the everyday players and pondering the Pat Burrell dilemma.

A first time for everything.

It happened.

After 28 years (my entire life) The Philadelphia Phillies won a world series. Now I'm not going to bore you (or myself) with a long post explaining how much this means to me, I'm not a red sox fan after all. I am mentioning it simply so you can get a glimpse at where my rooting interest lies. This blog will mostly be about baseball, oh sure I will post about movies/literature but the majority of my random thinking is absorbed by the game. I will attempt to root out my Phillies bias as much as possible, but in the end I will probably give them more space then they warrant. So I will leave for now, as I'm off to an election night party to hopefully see Barack Obama become the next president (by the way how amusing is it that fox news' website has a big, supportive McCain image on their site while CNN has a split image of both candidates surrounding a map of the country). I'll see you tomorrow when I begin the site in earnest by breaking down the Phillies offseason.